ABSTRACT
The results of a simulation-based evaluation of several policies for vaccine rollout are reported, particularly focusing on the effects of delaying the second dose of two-dose vaccines. In the presence of limited vaccine supply, the specific policy choice is a pressing issue for several countries worldwide, and the adopted course of action will affect the extension or easing of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the next months. We employ a suitably generalised, age-structure, stochastic SEIR (Susceptible [->] Exposed [->] Infectious [->] Removed) epidemic model that can accommodate quantitative descriptions of the major effects resulting from distinct vaccination strategies. The different rates of social contacts among distinct age-groups (as well as some other model parameters) are informed by a recent survey conducted in Greece, but the conclusions are much more widely applicable. The results are summarised and evaluated in terms of the total number of deaths and infections as well as life years lost. The optimal strategy is found to be one based on fully vaccinating the elderly/at risk as quickly as possible, while extending the time-interval between the two vaccine doses to 12 weeks for all individuals below 75 years old, in agreement with epidemic theory which suggests targeting a combination of susceptibility and infectivity. This policy, which is similar to the approaches adopted in the UK and in Canada, is found to be effective in reducing deaths and life years lost in the period while vaccination is still being carried out.
ABSTRACT
BackgroundThere is urgent need for safe and efficient triage protocols for hospitalized COVID-19 suspects to appropriate isolation wards. A major barrier to timely discharge of patients from the emergency room and hospital is the turnaround time for many SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid tests. We validated a point of care nucleic acid amplification based platform SAMBA II for diagnosis of COVID-19 and performed an implementation study to assess its impact on patient disposition at a major academic hospital. MethodsWe prospectively recruited COVID-19 suspects admitted to hospital (NCT04326387). In an initial pilot phase, individuals were tested using a nasal/throat swab with the SAMBA II SARS-CoV-2 rapid diagnostic platform in parallel with a combined nasal/throat swab for standard central laboratory RT-PCR testing. In the second implementation phase, we examined the utility of adding the SAMBA platform to routine care. In the pilot phase, we measured concordance and assay validity using the central laboratory as the reference standard and assessed assay turnaround time. In the implementation phase, we assessed 1) time to definitive bed placement from admission, 2) time spent on COVID-19 holding wards, 3) proportion of patients in isolation versus COVID negative areas following a test, comparing the implementation phase with the 10 days prior to implementation. ResultsIn phase I, 149 participants were included in the pilot. By central laboratory RT-PCR testing, 32 (21.5%) tested positive and 117 (78.5%). Sensitivity and specificity of the SAMBA assay compared to RT-PCR lab test were 96.9% (95% CI 0.838-0.999) and 99.1% (0.953-0.999), respectively. Median time to result was 2.6 hours (IQR 2.3 to 4.8) for SAMBA II SARS-CoV-2 test and 26.4 hours (IQR 21.4 to 31.4) for the standard lab RT-PCR test (p<0.001). In the first 10 days of the SAMBA implementation phase, we conducted 992 tests, with the majority (59.8%) used for hospital admission, and the remainder for pre-operative screening (11.3%), discharge planning (10%), in-hospital screening of new symptoms (9.7%). Comparing the pre-implementation (n=599) with the implementation phase, median time to definitive bed placement from admission was reduced from 23.4 hours (8.6-41.9) to 17.1 hours (9.0-28.8), P=0.02 in Cox analysis, adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities and clinical severity at presentation. Mean length of stay on a COVID-19 holding ward decreased from 58.5 hours to 29.9 hours (P<0.001). Use of single occupancy rooms amongst those tested fell from 30.8% before to 21.2% (P=0.03) and 11 hospital bay closures (on average 6 beds each) were avoided after implementation of the POC assay. ConclusionsThe SAMBA II SARS-CoV-2 rapid assay performed well compared to a centralized laboratory RT-PCR platform and demonstrated shorter time to result both in trial and real-world settings. It was also associated with faster time to definitive bed placement from the emergency room, greater availability of isolation rooms, avoidance of hospital bay closures, and greater movement of patients to COVID negative open "green" category wards. Rapid testing in hospitals has the potential to transform ability to deal with the COVID-19 epidemic.